Wednesday, July 15, 2015

BLING! BLING!- Religious Idiocy DOES Hurt the Economy




Believe it or not, it does. Primarily, the fascination of South Asians with a pretty, yet otherwise useless commodity called 'gold'.

In the fiscal year 2011-2012, India's total gold imports stood at around 56.5 billion USD while the Current Account Deficit was approximately 77.1 billion USD(4.2% of the GDP). A telling picture, considering that while the CAD this year has reduced(1.4% of the GDP), gold imports have risen up from 2013-2014 by over 35% to 900 tonnes(I don't know what that works out to in terms of USD, but it's more than the 2011-2012 figure).

India happens to be the world's biggest importer for gold, and the reasons are almost entirely cultural- given how everyone rushes to buy gold during 'auspicious' Hindoo festivals, weddings, anyaprashans and virtually for every conceivable reason on the planet.

Some people think that it's a 'safe' investment, but that's not quite right either. Gold prices can appreciate and depreciate just like any other commodity. In fact, the safest investment ever is to buy the RBI's Inflation Indexed Bonds. Interestingly, recent attempts by the RBI to market this were undone in part by the preference of individuals for...you guessed it... gold.

And there are investments that return better value too.

It's no mystery that people all over the world are fascinated by gold, but the cultural fascination for gold in South Asia is astounding. Temples are filled with gold, even today, and even the poor buy gold as a reserve.

The problem is that with such a large demand for gold cutting into the current account, it does become problematic when this current account deficit in turn is used as an excuse to cut government spending on welfare schemes.

So do yourselves and everyone else a favour, at your wedding or your child's anyaprashan or whatever, ask for hard cash instead of gold and invest it in treasury bonds or mutual funds or something. It's a much, much better investment and it's good for the economy too.

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